Jim and Maggie interview 2 state political experts; Steve Palmer and Paul Dioguardi

[00:00:00] Welcome back to another episode of The Political Life. We have begun our new journey. I have a

[00:00:24] co-host with me, Maggie Mick, who is going to help me find guests, interview guests and bring the show

[00:00:32] in a new direction, as we indicated last week on the teaser. The show has been,

[00:00:39] as a lot of you know, when the state sessions are in session, the show sometimes goes on hiatus,

[00:00:47] and we have been taking a little break. And so now that the state legislative sessions

[00:00:52] are coming to an end, we are kicking back into high gear for the summer and fall months.

[00:00:58] And so Maggie, welcome to the show. And we have two very special guests from Forbes State.

[00:01:04] One has been a prior guest, people will recognize, and one is fairly new. So Maggie, why don't you

[00:01:10] tell our guests a little bit about yourself and a little bit about them?

[00:01:15] Thank you. Thank you, Jim. I'm so glad that we're trying this made-in format with two

[00:01:21] guests and two co-hosts. So thank you to our friends from Forbes State for agreeing to be part of this

[00:01:27] first of the next chapter of The Political Life podcast, and Steve Palmer, who's been twice on

[00:01:35] as a guest of Jim's in the past, a fantastic

[00:01:40] guest of his. I always enjoyed his conversations, and we will link to his past appearances

[00:01:48] in the show notes. It's a good glimpse into his career and his time at Forbes State, but then

[00:01:56] also a really interesting episode about how governors should be considered and would be

[00:02:03] good presidents. So someday hopefully we'll get there. But he is joined as another guest,

[00:02:10] Paul Deogarti, his partner over at Forbes State with whom I have the honor of working with

[00:02:16] Steve and Paul. We're all part of the PPHC family, and so we thought we'd invite friends to this first

[00:02:22] episode, but more timely so, and this is kind of our aspirations as we make this turn with the

[00:02:28] podcast, is to bring forward guests who are behind kind of the news of the day, who, you know,

[00:02:35] what is in the headlines. We're bringing forward people who can help us analyze that and give

[00:02:41] us special windows into how to think about either a policy debate or a political race.

[00:02:46] And with three gubernatorial races quickly coming down the pike in May, we thought it would be

[00:02:53] timely to bring forward Steve and Paul who are just total pros with their state practice at

[00:03:00] Forbes State and have an established track record working with the nation's governors.

[00:03:06] And so before we hop into kind of the governor's races of 2026 and what may be, or 2024,

[00:03:12] and what may be on the horizon for 2026, wanted to kind of introduce Paul and learn a little bit

[00:03:18] about how he landed at Forbes State in his career. What I've always appreciated about Paul is that

[00:03:24] he has been part of some really big moments in our nation's politics and policy.

[00:03:30] And Paul, just before we kind of dive into some of the roles that you've held in your career,

[00:03:37] just when did you first get that political bite? What was your first entree into

[00:03:43] political campaigns or, you know, before you even went off to college? What drove you to it?

[00:03:50] Sure. Thanks, Maggie. Thanks, Jim. Really great to be on a show called The Political Life

[00:03:57] because I feel that's kind of what I've led. And so it's really fun to come on here and talk about

[00:04:03] that. I mean, I would say my real first taste of politics was actually when I was a kid growing

[00:04:09] up. I had a cousin who was running for the first of state assembly and then the state Senate

[00:04:17] in New York where I'm from originally. And I was just, you know, a kid is a little sidekick

[00:04:23] but got to go around to campaign events and visibilities and canvassing and all that. And

[00:04:30] that's what really sparked my interest, became really interested in what was going on politically

[00:04:37] throughout grade school and high school following closely political events and campaigns and

[00:04:44] just became a bit of a history buff when it comes to politics and history.

[00:04:49] All that being said, it never really occurred to me that this was like a job that you could have.

[00:04:54] I could do this professionally. And so when off to college, it did the political science thing and

[00:05:01] somehow decided that maybe I wanted to get into international affairs and international relations

[00:05:07] and stuff like that because I thought that was a more viable career that you could have.

[00:05:13] It didn't even occur to me that you could be a professional political person.

[00:05:17] And so one thing led to another and I actually ended up with an internship in Senator Kennedy's

[00:05:24] Washington, D.C. office. And then from there it really opened up the world of possibilities that

[00:05:29] you could do from being on the Hill to working in the executive branch to working in a state

[00:05:35] and doing the campaign thing. So that led me to his senatorial reelection campaign where

[00:05:43] I worked there for over a year plus and that really sort of opened up the doors for me politically

[00:05:50] from there, went on to work on a bunch of presidential campaigns all on the Democratic side.

[00:05:55] Obviously, I think pretty much every presidential campaign since maybe 1996 that is involved in

[00:06:03] one way or the other. And it's really, from there it's been a mix of obviously the political

[00:06:10] campaign stuff but also stints in government. I worked in the Obama administration after his

[00:06:16] election in 2008. I worked at the Democratic Governors Association, worked for various

[00:06:23] advocacy groups and other political consulting firms. So really sort of done everything under

[00:06:30] the sun in the political life throughout my career, which eventually led me to

[00:06:36] Forbes State. It's been about going on six years now that it's been at Forbes State and have had the

[00:06:43] great honor and privilege of working with Steve Palmer doing a lot of the governor's work,

[00:06:49] which we can talk more about. But it's been quite the journey and like I said,

[00:06:56] I never would have imagined when I was in high school or college sort of doing what I've done

[00:07:00] and ending up here. But it's worked out great. It's been really rewarding and interesting,

[00:07:08] certainly an exciting career. And I think you held a role in the president's administration

[00:07:16] working with HHS. Were you part of kind of the ACA? Was that one of your big

[00:07:22] undertakings during that administration? Yeah, for sure. And it was really interesting because

[00:07:28] I came into government with really that pure political background from all the campaign work

[00:07:33] I had done. And so coming into HHS in the beginning of the Obama administration and all these

[00:07:39] healthcare policy battles were being fought out, that was very new to me. But what I quickly found

[00:07:48] is there was a real role for me as that political person inside the administration, particularly

[00:07:53] around the ACA in particular for sure, doing that work of engaging stakeholders or anticipating

[00:08:02] opposition, which there certainly was a lot of pushing back about that against that and really

[00:08:09] lining up our allies externally to try to help us both with the messaging and sort of the

[00:08:16] political fight of it, but also really with the implementation. It really took a lot of

[00:08:21] outside stakeholders both inside and outside of government to be able to do that. So coming in,

[00:08:27] not knowing much about healthcare and then being able to learn about our entire healthcare system

[00:08:33] as it was being completely revamped was a really incredible experience. And a lot of,

[00:08:41] like I said, a lot of the political skills that I brought in, I think were ultimately

[00:08:45] pretty helpful. It's also the thing that really got me working even more closely with states and

[00:08:52] governors. As you know, Healthcare, the Affordable Care Act really relied a lot on state by state

[00:09:00] implementation of sort of the federal program. And that was one of my primary roles at HHS,

[00:09:06] was working with governors, work with Medicaid directors, working with state agencies to

[00:09:11] try to implement this and also to try not to really try to destroy it. So I was working from both

[00:09:20] sides, but that was an incredible experience. And I think to the point of some of the conversation

[00:09:24] we'll have on this show is just highlighting the really critically important role that

[00:09:29] governors play, that state agencies play even when you're talking about a major federal

[00:09:36] initiative like the ACA. So that was really cool. And that sort of intersection of the policy and

[00:09:44] the politics and the state and federal, that's really sort of at the core of what I do and what

[00:09:49] we do now at four of states. So it's a very applicable experience to the work I'm doing now.

[00:09:56] And was working with Governor Sibelius kind of the first entree to working with the governor?

[00:10:00] Was that your first? Yeah, yeah, absolutely. In fact, I had, she was the chair of

[00:10:06] the DGA when I worked there as a political director at DGA before going on over to Obama.

[00:10:13] And so it got in a little, got to know her a little bit there in that political role. And then

[00:10:18] when I went over to HHS, I was actually when Tom Dashel was supposed to be the secretary and

[00:10:23] then that didn't work out. And then so they brought in Sibelius like, oh, this is great.

[00:10:30] She gets this. I can work with her. And for me personally too, I think that was critically

[00:10:37] important because from day one, she really as a governor obviously really understood

[00:10:43] the role and the importance of governors and everything. And this was even before we got

[00:10:47] the ACA passed from the get-go. She's like, okay, you're my point on governors.

[00:10:52] We're really going to need them and I want to make sure that they're closely involved

[00:10:55] and everything. And she obviously had all those existing relationships with her colleagues and all

[00:11:00] that. So she in a lot of ways was better at my job than I was, but she did got the importance of

[00:11:08] that which not everybody in that position might have really understood from the start.

[00:11:13] And she really did. So she totally empowered me to make engaging with governors and states

[00:11:18] a high priority in everything we were doing in the administration.

[00:11:21] Thanks. So Forbes Tate, did Steve join first or who? Who? Three days, who?

[00:11:29] Steve joined first. I came in about, I think it's almost six years ago, 2018, came in and actually

[00:11:41] Forbes Tate is a full-service firm. So we do federal government lobbying. We do obviously the

[00:11:49] state work. And then we also do full-service public affairs, communications, advocacy,

[00:11:55] coalition work. And so when I started, I'd known Jeff Forbes, I think like seems like everybody in

[00:12:01] DC had known Jeff Forbes for years and years. And so he brought me in to help out more on the

[00:12:10] campaign and the public affairs side, which was great. And then I knew that they had done

[00:12:17] state work. And I certainly knew of Steve Palmer from my work in the state world, but

[00:12:24] we didn't really connect until I got on the inside and the state work was really

[00:12:29] kicking off and expanding rapidly. And so I sort of said, oh, okay, I know that stuff.

[00:12:34] I can help out and Steve was kind enough to throw me right in the middle of it. And

[00:12:39] it's been great ever since we've continued to grow and expand. And so that's really

[00:12:44] what takes up the most of my time now is doing the state government relations work at Forbes Tate.

[00:12:52] Nice. Steve, what's your favorite Paul story from the battles you all have done?

[00:13:00] I always just call him Paul.

[00:13:01] Can we stop recording?

[00:13:05] For me, I can never pronounce his last name correctly. So I just call him Paul,

[00:13:10] he's a lobbyist. And the good thing about Paul is he went to a couple of pretty good schools in

[00:13:21] BC and then Harvard. And so I always like to bring him into a lot of our clients, because he's

[00:13:26] super, he's just whip smart. And it's good, right? It's a little bit of ying and yang in

[00:13:33] terms of the work we do together where it's just been a really good partnership in our

[00:13:39] clients value that in Paul. I think he just kind of got a just a quick breath to his

[00:13:44] personality and kind of how he goes about things. He, as much as he may not admit it,

[00:13:48] he has like a very intellectual side, which which clients value because he can ground his

[00:13:53] advice and his perspective on a great deal of just intellect, which is good. I on the other

[00:13:59] hand oftentimes can ground it on just kind of the on the.

[00:14:03] You're the cowboy?

[00:14:04] Yeah, I am of the West, right? A little bit of the instinct, a little bit of

[00:14:08] because I have a business background and so it's a really good thing for us to have this partnership

[00:14:14] away to structured. And it is crazy, Paul, that we've been working together for eight years.

[00:14:21] But it's all been great. And I'm super stoked to be back on Jim. Good to see you. And

[00:14:28] this is always a fun conversation. And I know it's burning your ears. Yes,

[00:14:32] I'll be running a couple of races.

[00:14:37] Well, let's let's get into that. What races are you going to be engaged in?

[00:14:42] Or which ones you want to talk about?

[00:14:44] Yeah, this summer I'll be doing never summer. I'm shorting the distance a little bit,

[00:14:47] that'll be 60 K up in cool Colorado, but it's about 12,000 vertical gain and descent.

[00:14:53] And then in September, I'll be doing UTMR over in Italy and Switzerland, where you go back

[00:14:59] and forth over the border a handful of times. That one will be a four day race,

[00:15:08] but a cumulative about 120 miles, but about 30,000 feet of elevation gain and descent over the time.

[00:15:15] Oh my God.

[00:15:16] Legislators are out so we've got to go out and recharge their batteries.

[00:15:21] As if it's not hard enough to run 120 miles in four days, you have to do it with 30,000

[00:15:25] feet of elevation up and down in the mountains. I mean, you can't just run it on flat ground.

[00:15:29] No, that's boring.

[00:15:33] Oh my God.

[00:15:37] That's great. And what's the first race that you mentioned?

[00:15:40] It's never summer. It's in Colorado, just north Denver.

[00:15:47] Okay. How far is that one?

[00:15:49] It's over 60 K, which is about a little less than 40 miles.

[00:15:56] Oh, so that's a short one.

[00:15:57] Yeah.

[00:15:58] Short one for you.

[00:16:00] Oh my God.

[00:16:03] All right, so let's get into the political races, the gubernatorial,

[00:16:08] the states. Which states should we talk about first? We have some primaries coming up.

[00:16:16] Which, right Maggie?

[00:16:18] Yeah. I think Missouri's up first.

[00:16:23] Yeah, I think you're right. And this is a state where Republicans have done quite well

[00:16:28] historically. I think it's one that, again, we anticipate that we win in the general.

[00:16:37] The primary is, it's relatively close, but I think it's fair to say that

[00:16:45] Senator Brown is doing well. He's double digits up on most polls.

[00:16:52] And I think he will probably continue to run hard. Paul, do you have anyone on the Democratic side

[00:16:59] that's even going to be putting up a fight or is this one that you guys have just kind of stepped

[00:17:02] away from?

[00:17:06] We've got a candidate, but it's really not on the radar as far as I've seen.

[00:17:13] I think maybe if there wasn't such a crowded field, the strong candidates on the Republican

[00:17:19] side, we'd take a look at it. Indiana is a state that has actually had Democratic governors,

[00:17:28] not very much recently, but it is a state in fact that Barack Obama carried in 2008

[00:17:35] that people forget about. So I wouldn't call it a swing state or a battleground state or

[00:17:42] anything, but when the presidential election year things can happen. But I think Senator

[00:17:48] Brown is a pretty strong candidate and it looks like he'll clear that Republican field. So I think

[00:17:55] it may be if this would like some of the recent governor and Senate races where the Republicans

[00:17:59] nominated sort of a more right-wing candidate, we'd give it a look. But I think this one looks

[00:18:06] like a pretty strong case for the Republicans, especially if Senator Brown clears the primary.

[00:18:10] It looks like he will.

[00:18:13] And then the other state that's having a primary is what? West Virginia, Maggie? Is

[00:18:16] that what you said? Yep. Any thoughts or comments on that, Steve?

[00:18:21] Well, that one's pretty interesting because you have General Morrissey who's really

[00:18:26] very solid in the party there for several decades. He is leading. He's running a very

[00:18:33] strong race. He's running up against the son of a congressman, which is always a challenge.

[00:18:42] But I think that because he has done such a good job, historically,

[00:18:46] recent polls have him up double digits as well. It's a pretty well-funded race and a

[00:18:52] couple of candidates have quite a bit of cash on hand. But West Virginia is an interesting state

[00:18:58] where I think they really do when they get behind a good candidate, they'll stick with him.

[00:19:04] And Morrissey has been a very effective attorney general, someone who's super, super smart,

[00:19:11] digs in on issues, can connect with people on both sides of the aisle I find.

[00:19:18] He can do really well. Paul, again, I'll look to you on this one because this is a state where,

[00:19:23] as we both know, an independent governor and all intents and purposes

[00:19:29] kind of goes both ways. And this race is going to be a little bit different.

[00:19:33] Are you guys looking at it, Paul? Or are you what you're taking?

[00:19:37] Yeah, I think this is another case like Indiana where, again, maybe in a presidential year if you had

[00:19:46] a more extreme candidate on the Republican side, maybe we'd give it a look.

[00:19:51] It's really without Joe Manchin on the ballot. He's the, well,

[00:19:58] Governor Justice won as a Democrat and then switched parties. But yeah,

[00:20:01] seems like Joe Manchin was really the only person who could win statewide for Democrats.

[00:20:08] So, again, Morrissey, like you said, is a strong candidate. Looks like he'll probably clear the

[00:20:14] primary. And so it makes it harder for Democrats to see an opening there, even though it's probably

[00:20:21] going to be a high turnout presidential year. But West Virginia is also solidly behind Trump.

[00:20:29] I think probably one of the stronger Trump states there is. So,

[00:20:32] yeah, makes another reason why it makes it a tough year for Democrats in a state like that.

[00:20:38] So one of the most interesting kind of Democratic opportunities may be in New Hampshire, correct?

[00:20:46] Yeah, definitely. I mean, I think of other than North Carolina, I think New Hampshire is

[00:20:53] probably the state that we're looking at the closest. Like the other states, I mean,

[00:21:01] I think if Senator Aott is nominated on the Republican side, it makes it not as clear cut

[00:21:10] as it might have been like some other races recently. But it's definitely a

[00:21:16] top-line battleground race for Democrats. And I think it's going to, for a small state,

[00:21:23] it's going to get expensive and it's going to be hard flop because that's really our pickup

[00:21:27] opportunity with the incumbent Governor Sununu not running. He's been a popular Republican governor

[00:21:36] of a state that really has been more purple in recent years. And so, but without him there,

[00:21:43] I think all things being equal would be a good pickup opportunity for Democrats. But

[00:21:51] it looks like it's going to be a good race with solid candidates on both sides. And so,

[00:21:55] then it's just going to be a bare-knuckle brawl there. But that's, like I said, that's really

[00:22:02] if we can defend the open seat in North Carolina, New Hampshire is really the place

[00:22:09] to pick up and gain a Democratic governor. And so, I think that's why it will really be a

[00:22:14] top-level race until Election Day. And Josh Stein has just been such a well-respected

[00:22:20] figure in North Carolina. I remember when he was in the legislature, just well-respected there,

[00:22:27] represented the research triangle, was a successful attorney general. One of my

[00:22:33] most interesting 2024 fun facts is I learned that an attorney general, a Republican attorney general,

[00:22:39] has not served or been elected in North Carolina in like 170 years. So, I'm trying to pick up with

[00:22:49] Representative U.S. Congressman Bishop this year. But so North Carolina just continues to be

[00:22:54] this anomaly state. But any additional thinking on that?

[00:22:59] No, I think that's really our more key race. It's defending Governor Cooper's

[00:23:07] eight-year hold there. Like he said, Attorney General Stein has just been a nothing-comer

[00:23:13] for a long time now and has really run a fantastic race and has been preparing for this for quite

[00:23:19] some time, kind of cleared the field out and is looking pretty good right now in the polls.

[00:23:26] I mean, I think this is a state, even though it is probably more red than even purple at this point,

[00:23:33] where because the Republican candidate is a little more to the right, some would say way far to the

[00:23:40] right. That plus Stein's solid campaign that he's run so far, I think makes it

[00:23:50] pretty good opportunity. It's North Carolina, it's presidential year, there'll be a lot

[00:23:58] going into this race. But right now I like Josh Stein's chances and think he's run a great

[00:24:05] campaign would be a great governor. But that's for Democrats, I think is going to be number one

[00:24:10] on our list this year. And one thing about politics is the more contentious state the

[00:24:19] tired of the race, the more expensive it becomes. There are some estimations out there in North

[00:24:23] Carolina that could be a north of $120 million race. I always ask myself to what end,

[00:24:31] right? It's a significant effort that both candidates are going to be embarking upon.

[00:24:41] As Paul noted, it's also a battleground stage for the presidential. What influence is the

[00:24:47] top of the ticket going to have on the gubernatorial and down-ballage elections?

[00:24:54] Are right-pantry, wrong track, right-track or wrong track in indication? What do we have?

[00:25:01] 65% of Americans think we're on the wrong track. Does that can influence all races?

[00:25:09] Any of the races or people just lamenting that they feel like they're in a bad place?

[00:25:13] I think North Carolina is going to be a real tell because it's an economy that's doing well.

[00:25:21] It's all-in economy, super strong biotech situation there, technology, transportation.

[00:25:33] So it's kind of like a great confluence of many things and to see if the wrong track holds

[00:25:39] true there. I know people just going to want to pivot hard because it would be a hard pivot if

[00:25:44] they all of a sudden say we want Trump and we want Robinson as our governor. That'd be a hard pivot

[00:25:53] for them. And Paul, I don't know what you're reading or what you're saying.

[00:25:57] We feel pretty good. We've been in the Republicans feel pretty good about the

[00:26:00] gubernatorial race there. It's a tight race. We have a pretty dynamic candidate.

[00:26:06] He can run pretty far to the right on some issues, but sometimes that's a good thing when you have a

[00:26:13] state that's been under democratic control to have some new leadership come in.

[00:26:19] Paul's are jumping up and down. I think I saw a recent poll that has us up by two points

[00:26:24] in the general. Is that going to tighten? Time will tell.

[00:26:29] And what's going to influence it? I really, that's the question I ask often is,

[00:26:37] is the Trump-Biden election going to be the key driver? Historically,

[00:26:44] governors have done very well at running on their own. And the influence of the presidential has not

[00:26:51] come down to that level. And I think even some of the states we've touched on a little bit

[00:26:55] ago are proof points of that where people are pretty inclined to vote person over party

[00:27:02] in some of these races. And I think this year is going to be a very telling,

[00:27:09] you know, not to dive in too many other races, but let's get Montana, where you have

[00:27:16] Gio Forte who's a very conservative governor. He's going to walk away with that race.

[00:27:22] And then you have a Senate race where the incumbent testers like you to hold on.

[00:27:27] And the Trump's going to just walk Montana with a parade. So it's going to be very,

[00:27:34] very telling to see how these other states break out. Paul, I don't know if you think I'm

[00:27:40] bum here. I think it's a great point. And I think particularly when you look at New Hampshire

[00:27:46] and North Carolina, you have seen a lot of tickets splitting there recently. And say,

[00:27:52] you know, New Hampshire was sort of trending more blue and North Carolina is trending more red.

[00:27:58] But last time around, you know, after elected Republican governor and North Carolina elected,

[00:28:03] reelected a Democratic governor, right? So I think that's exactly right. We there's

[00:28:09] particularly with states like that, there's just so many unknowns, like you said, about

[00:28:13] what's going to influence the race, what's the electorate general look like? How's the top of ticket

[00:28:18] going to impact things? So, you know, I think normally we would be relying a lot on sort of

[00:28:26] those broader trends to help us figure out what's going to happen in those two states. But

[00:28:31] to your point, I think it's possible like North Carolina, for example, could swing

[00:28:37] way to the right and be a dramatic change. And Trump on down, you know, straight ticket, Republican

[00:28:43] sweep is possible. We could see the opposite dynamic in New Hampshire where it's a Democrat

[00:28:51] up and down victory across the board. Yeah. So I think it's going to be really telling,

[00:28:56] like you said, about whether ticket splitting survives another round. I think we've all

[00:29:05] been watching sort of the slow depth of sort of that, you know, ticket splitting and more

[00:29:11] elections sort of being, you know, a swing in one direction or the other. And traditionally,

[00:29:17] you know, governor's races have been the one that's been the last holdout, right? You've seen

[00:29:23] blue states electing Republicans and some reddish states electing Democrats, that started to

[00:29:30] dwindle somewhat. So we may be nearing the end of that dynamic, but North Carolina and New Hampshire,

[00:29:38] I think are the perfect states to sort of tell us something about where we are politically as a

[00:29:44] country. And if sort of that ticket splitting or that sort of, you know, true swing state dynamic

[00:29:52] is in place or if we're really just sort of trending more and more to red state blue

[00:29:57] state and that's sort of what determines everything. So it can be really, really critical

[00:30:02] to see how that plays out. And Vermont is TBD, speaking of split states. Yeah.

[00:30:10] TBD. I mean, I think, you know, Democrats stand ready with a crowded field if the governor

[00:30:18] opts not to seek reelection. But yeah, that's a great point. I mean, there is no bluer state

[00:30:24] than Vermont and yet they've continued to elect and reelect a Republican governor. So, but again,

[00:30:31] without him at the top of the ticket, it probably goes back blue. But I don't know, Steve, what

[00:30:36] are you doing? Jeff, figure out why he hasn't made his decision yet. And maybe like me, he's

[00:30:44] just waiting for his race season to fill out. He loves to stock cars. I think that he's been

[00:30:51] a very good governor. And I think he's been precisely what the state needed and needs.

[00:30:59] I'm looking at you, Jim, because you're just a stone's throw from him in terms of location.

[00:31:05] Why do you think he's holding out? If, yeah, if you knew the answer to that, you could

[00:31:12] make a bet and win some money. You know, who knows? Who knows?

[00:31:18] Who knows? The most popular governor in America.

[00:31:21] Yeah, yeah. But I thought it's very interesting what you all was, I mean, the splitting is

[00:31:30] very true and there is something unique about governors. People, it's, you know, and you

[00:31:38] too would know better than anyone. It is a unique office and look at Massachusetts who

[00:31:43] has elected a number of Republican governors and the senators are, you know, I mean, it's a blue,

[00:31:50] blue state. It's very interesting to hear you all talk about the dynamics in North Carolina and other

[00:31:57] states with the presidential and the gubernatorial races. Yeah, it's real. And the other thing

[00:32:06] that's impacting it is the number of unaffiliated voters now people are just sick and tired with

[00:32:11] the people. So yeah, and they truly are one of the reasons that voters to the point made earlier

[00:32:20] are loyal to the person, not to the party. And you know, sometimes they feel like they want to

[00:32:27] have an apple of the day in an orange tomorrow and that's how they're going to vote. And I think

[00:32:32] if we see the trend just nationwide on that, that there's there's still a high level of

[00:32:39] if you will dissatisfaction in terms of the party structure. That's not a, it is a political statement,

[00:32:47] but it's more of a reality of fact, right? People are just like consumers, they vote with their

[00:32:53] wallet and they vote with their feet. And it'll be very, very telling to see what comes up.

[00:33:00] You know, I think diving into the wrong track issues like why do people feel the way they

[00:33:05] feel, right? Inflation is high. You know, you have housing prices at an all time high, you have

[00:33:14] interest rates that are about where they were when I was buying my first home. There was there's

[00:33:20] this notion that the cost of money should be less people should be able to afford bigger homes

[00:33:28] than maybe what they necessarily should. And then you have this whole situation where there's

[00:33:35] a lot of people just holding onto their homes. And then young people, you know, people have

[00:33:40] young kids like Paul and I do, you know, there's housing prices are unsustainable.

[00:33:46] And so the correction has to happen. And I think all these things are coming into people's mindset.

[00:33:52] Then what's the impact of higher education? I think we had a pretty tough winter, right? Paul,

[00:33:58] where higher education was put under the gun politically. Is there some things that were being

[00:34:04] said in the Senate? Is that affecting people's mindset about right track, right track, wrong track?

[00:34:11] A lot of things going on out there. Oh, you do a lot of work in health. Go ahead, Jim.

[00:34:15] Jim I was going to say, yeah, you know, almost too many things. I think people feel,

[00:34:20] you know, they're the ground is shifting under them on too many fronts. You know,

[00:34:24] we have two wars going on, inflation, the economy, housing. The immigration issue continues to go on.

[00:34:33] Crime in various cities. It's almost like there's too much going on and we have a rematch,

[00:34:41] which people are kind of like, oh boy, you know, like it's, you know, and to your point, if

[00:34:49] 65% of the country, and I know it's not the country, felt we were on the wrong track

[00:34:52] and you had a candidate like Barack Obama, well then I think we would know what would happen in the

[00:34:58] come November. But we're having a rematch and people are, you know, it's just,

[00:35:03] it's a dynamic that I have never seen before. And as you were saying before,

[00:35:09] the candidate in North Carolina is up by two points, but man alive between May and November.

[00:35:15] Think of all the things that can happen. It's just incredible. But Paul, go ahead,

[00:35:20] you were going to say something. Yeah, no, I think those are all good points and it's interesting

[00:35:24] just that broader political dynamic. I mean, we've, every election since 2008 has literally been a

[00:35:30] change election, right? So Americans have been every, yeah, really every two years when you

[00:35:35] think about it. So to your point of people just not being happy or feeling unsatisfied,

[00:35:42] that dynamic has been out there for a while now. And literally every two years,

[00:35:46] people have been calling for change. But then like you said, it's interesting that despite that,

[00:35:54] we're having an election now where there is no clear change candidate, right? I mean,

[00:35:58] they both represent sort of a status quo of one side or the other. And so I think that

[00:36:04] makes for a very unpredictable dynamic. You know, if you look at the wrong track numbers,

[00:36:10] it's like, well, people are thinking America has been on the wrong track. I mean, really,

[00:36:16] again, since this dynamic I think started really around 2008 and it just flips like when there's a

[00:36:23] Democrat in office, Republicans think, you know, the country is going the wrong direction.

[00:36:27] I mean, Democrat office it flips, but that number is always really high, right? It just changes

[00:36:32] of who feels that way. And that's just a really difficult environment to operate in. I mean,

[00:36:38] I think if you're looking at any of the other sort of usual indicators, I'm talking mostly

[00:36:42] presidential level now of unemployment and sort of wage growth. And inflation now is actually

[00:36:52] going down, right? Crime is going down, right? But do people actually perceive that? Do they feel it?

[00:36:59] I think part of that also gets back to the state national dynamic,

[00:37:03] comes with the governor's race. People in North Carolina may feel that they're not satisfied,

[00:37:10] the country is on the wrong track, but Governor Cooper has high approval ratings, right? And so,

[00:37:15] well, why not just why go for change on that level, right? In New Hampshire, I think

[00:37:21] similar dynamic. It could be, well, there's going to be a big battle between Trump and

[00:37:30] Biden. Is that going to drive people's perceptions of the governor's race or can

[00:37:38] the governor's race remain in that vacuum again? Well, we've had a good time with

[00:37:44] Governor Sununu, so let's sort of keep track with the split party control. So,

[00:37:50] yeah, I mean, it's just people like us who've been doing campaigns for decades,

[00:37:55] there used to be certain things that you could rely on and you'd know, okay, by June if unemployment is

[00:38:00] below 5%, the income is in good shape. And that's that, right? And it just doesn't work that way

[00:38:08] anymore. And at the national level, and I think that certainly gets down to the state level, where

[00:38:15] it's just really hard to tell what's going to happen. And so that's why all that money

[00:38:21] is going to be spent one way or the other. And we'll see if it actually has any impact on the outcome.

[00:38:31] Maggie, I'm looking at you, thinking about something. You work in the legislatures across the

[00:38:36] country and legislators are quite good about having overall thoughtful discussions about issues.

[00:38:44] They're also realized they have to contemplate legislation in a finite window of time,

[00:38:50] good, better and different. At the federal level, they oftentimes which derives the sentiment of our

[00:38:56] country. That's not the case. And they can, they can throw out this just partisan statements and

[00:39:03] trench camps where you have people to the right and people to the left. And I think it really

[00:39:07] impacts our ability to govern down ticket and so much so that Governor Cox, the NGA had to put

[00:39:15] an entire mission of this year and how you've disagreed better just because, you know, politics

[00:39:23] has gotten so nasty. And it's impacting conversations at the supper table. And then to pause

[00:39:32] point when you go into an election, you know, traditionally there's ways you can have conversations

[00:39:37] or inform or influence the debate. And now you have to really go to these like little camps of,

[00:39:46] you know, well, the right's going to go to Fox and the left's going to go to CNN. And they're just

[00:39:50] in this vacuum of hearing what they want to hear as opposed to the old way which is

[00:39:57] trust and verify, three sources of information to learn about the issues. And so all of those

[00:40:03] things together is really getting, it's creating just a really difficult time for the cycle.

[00:40:11] Well, so for the 26th cycle and to the mention of Barack Obama being a transcendent candidate,

[00:40:18] and I would argue Governor Cox kind of fits the same kind of aspirational leader, you know,

[00:40:26] you all meet quite frequently the candidates who have, you know, the desire to become governor.

[00:40:32] Are there any that are starting to pop their heads up and fundraisers and other meetings

[00:40:37] that you think are just a candidate to watch on the Republican or Democratic side for 26?

[00:40:44] Great question. Great question opposed to these two.

[00:40:49] Yeah, in terms of, you know, it's interesting because I think the Republicans we've had a

[00:40:57] really, I think a smart approach to identifying winning candidates, a business background

[00:41:07] has really become something that has been a good success factor. Someone who's started their

[00:41:16] own business or run their own business or has been at a leadership level within a company as

[00:41:20] the CEO or as a chairman, chairperson, young Ken or a Bergam who's highly successful business person.

[00:41:31] Gioforte, highly successful business person, you know, started right now at a nice old

[00:41:37] transaction with Larry Ellison. And he's brought all that both of them have brought forward

[00:41:42] this business acumen to managing their state, even on the Democratic side, with Hickam-Luckberg.

[00:41:51] With Governor Polis, right? Business. Business is their background. Politics may be their brand, but

[00:41:58] so I think it's too early to say here's candidate X, Y or Z, but I think it's fair to say what type

[00:42:05] of candidates we're going to be looking for on our side and in an effort also to avoid

[00:42:12] some of that hyper-partisan right here because when you become governor,

[00:42:16] you have to put your partisan ship aside. You have to govern. You have to be an executive. You

[00:42:22] have to make decisions based upon the enterprise, which is the state and to make sure that you

[00:42:28] operationalize and run that business accordingly. And I think that's why, you know, Pol and I,

[00:42:35] I always say I'm blessed to work with governors because, you know, you can sit down with the

[00:42:40] governor from either party and have a discussion about solving the problem that's going to

[00:42:44] help the state and bring great jobs. If it's going to, you know, help, you know, elevate the

[00:42:53] state standing in their economy. And governors love that. They love talking with each other and

[00:42:59] getting competitive about how they grow their state because I have to build a perspective

[00:43:03] because they view it as a business person, not as a partisan. All you can tell me to

[00:43:07] get on my horse and ride it out of town, but that's my take.

[00:43:11] No, I think that's right. And I think particularly when it comes to the governor's

[00:43:16] elections, Republicans have done a great job of following the model you just laid out.

[00:43:21] I'm actually surprised you don't see more of that. I guess you do see some of that in the

[00:43:24] Senate candidates, but that's been very successful. And I think without

[00:43:29] that sort of previous experience in government coming from the business side,

[00:43:33] I think Republicans have been able to avoid some of the more contentious policy conversations.

[00:43:42] And so it's been a winning formula for them. I think Democrats has sort of taken the opposite

[00:43:48] approach, which is elevating people with like really strong experience and track record in

[00:43:55] government. You mentioned attorneys general earlier. I mean, that's been a huge pipeline

[00:43:59] for Democrats as the attorneys general. And that was used very successfully last time around.

[00:44:07] And so I would expect that we'll continue going down that path of people with real governing

[00:44:13] experience and sort of emphasizing that and emphasizing sort of wanting to make government

[00:44:18] work well has been really, really successful for Democrats at the state level of fix the

[00:44:25] damn roads in Michigan type of approach from Governor Whitmer. And I think in terms of looking

[00:44:32] at 26, I think it's going to be a real platform for some of the rising stars in the Democratic

[00:44:37] Party as they go up for a real action and maybe onto bigger and better things. You look at

[00:44:42] Governor Moore here in Maryland or Governor Healy in Massachusetts, Governor Shapiro in Pennsylvania.

[00:44:51] I mean, 26, I think is going to be the year that up-and-comers like that really showcase

[00:45:00] what they've done. And I think it's going to be a real model for Democrats in comments and

[00:45:07] challengers alike to follow as just sort of trying to bring people together and

[00:45:14] govern effectively. I think it's been a really effective message. And again, it does,

[00:45:20] from our side, that side step, some of the more controversial policy conversations on our side

[00:45:26] is just focusing on good governance and making the state run. So I expect we'll see more of that

[00:45:33] from Democrats for the next couple of cycles to come.

[00:45:38] So with that, with the two of you, we have already run over what we try to designate as our time.

[00:45:47] So I wanted to turn it over to Maggie. Maggie, did you want to go through your lightning rod?

[00:45:54] Let's do it. It'll be a fun way to end the show. So we can do one to two governors,

[00:46:00] maybe Democrat, Republican or just one if they stand out.

[00:46:04] Senior superlative style. We're going to go through a couple of questions.

[00:46:09] I wish the listeners could see Steve and Paul's face right now.

[00:46:18] They are not looking forward to this.

[00:46:21] All right, so best policy governor.

[00:46:27] Who goes first? Steve or Paul?

[00:46:30] I'm going to speak for Paul. Jared Paul loves his policy. Here's the Republican

[00:46:35] bring it forward to Democrat. He's wicked smart. Some of his ideas are poor,

[00:46:40] but he is so smart and so well grounded on just his intellect and what he believes in.

[00:46:46] He's again, I don't agree with many of his policies, but in terms of policy governor,

[00:46:52] he is spot on. Now Paul, I think he should speak to a Republican one.

[00:46:57] I like this.

[00:46:59] I will play it safe and go with your good friend, Kristie Nuneau, who I think has been a real

[00:47:07] He's not running for reelection.

[00:47:08] He was not running for reelection.

[00:47:10] Smart move, Paul. I like that.

[00:47:11] Yeah, exactly. But yeah, done a great job. Again, I don't agree with everything he says

[00:47:18] and does, but has done a great job in a blueish state and has managed to get

[00:47:27] reelected. I think it's just been popular. We've had the pleasure of working with him on a number

[00:47:36] of different issues for clients and otherwise. He's always been great to work with. I'll

[00:47:41] throw Steve that bone.

[00:47:43] All right, best retail politician governor.

[00:47:51] I mean, on the Democratic side, we've got some good ones. I don't think he can force me to pick

[00:47:58] a Republican on this one. I mean, if you've ever seen people like Wes Moore in action,

[00:48:04] governor of Maryland, I mean, he is great. He's almost like Clinton or Obama level sort of

[00:48:15] doing the retail stuff and loves doing it. And I think it's big reason why he got elected

[00:48:21] from out of nowhere as governor of Maryland. So I would, I'd go with him. He's always fun to

[00:48:30] see work or room.

[00:48:32] And staying in the Del Marver region, Governor Youngton, here's the state where you

[00:48:38] essentially have to come and run and then be told to leave after serving one term.

[00:48:43] He came in at a very difficult time during the pandemic. He ran a very strong campaign

[00:48:50] where he put big arms around schools and the importance of some of those issues tied to it.

[00:48:57] And he took a very tough issue and addressed it with a smile and he connects with people on

[00:49:01] just a really wonderful level. You know, it's, you know, a lot of folks,

[00:49:06] all he's time for in the room for president has Reagan S-type qualities when he speaks

[00:49:10] and when you visit with him. So I would put him as a substantive retail politician, right?

[00:49:18] Someone who can, you know, sort of connect with people kind of where they're at, which I think is

[00:49:22] pretty fantastic. All right, two more. Fest humor.

[00:49:32] He's wicked smart and he can just cut to the core and do it with a smile.

[00:49:40] Yeah, that's a pretty easy one. Governor Murphy from New Jersey is hilarious

[00:49:47] and also good at working a room, but very, very funny with any and all interactions.

[00:49:55] All right, last one. Best bipartisan friendship.

[00:50:01] Of ours or to the other governor?

[00:50:06] Steve Palmer and Paul Deogarty.

[00:50:09] There you go.

[00:50:10] No, right. But our friendship with the governors or the governor's.

[00:50:14] A Democrat governor and a Republican governor.

[00:50:17] I think we've seen some of those of late with Governor Cox's initiative.

[00:50:25] I think it's a little bit of a trifecta with Paul and some talks and then

[00:50:32] Maryland, they've developed this friendship. Go ahead.

[00:50:37] Yeah, no, I was going to say it's a great question because like you said,

[00:50:42] that's Governor Cox's whole initiative and he has been very actively

[00:50:47] reaching across the island. So yeah, that poll is Cox dynamic and Governor Moore,

[00:50:52] you mentioned as well that they are seem all truly genuinely committed to the working

[00:50:58] across the aisle across states thing, which has always been the case even in organizations

[00:51:05] like NGA that is bipartisan. I would say the level of collegiality in the room at NGA

[00:51:14] has been pretty good and pretty solid. I think that's because there are those

[00:51:20] governors who have been making it a priority. And so that's been really refreshing to say.

[00:51:27] And I know you've had Jack on from the Western Governors Association and

[00:51:33] Western governors are really good about going to work and then taking back and

[00:51:39] and loyal opposition, if you will, but like in a really meaningful way.

[00:51:45] And so it's always good to watch those relationships. I think at the point,

[00:51:50] there are no more regional governor groups but for WGA.

[00:51:55] That's half the country. I mean, it's 22 states.

[00:51:58] Yeah, I know. Everybody wants to be on the West right now.

[00:52:02] All right. Well, we will end on that note, that bipartisan note.

[00:52:13] Maggie, it was wonderful to have you co-host. I am looking forward to this.

[00:52:17] I hope our listeners enjoyed it. I think this has been great. And to Steve and Paul,

[00:52:21] thank you for joining us. Steve is in an airport and I think heading to two or three

[00:52:27] states this week and I'm sure Paul is doing the same. For our listeners, remember you can

[00:52:33] sign up for our email or follow us on X and other social media platforms, Instagram, Facebook

[00:52:41] and others. We very much appreciate you tuning in and we look forward to seeing you next week.